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It is very important in any situation analysis to first understand whether the leadership that has emerged is committed and has a minimum of capacity to lead the reconstruction process. The very first element of the socio-politico-economic situation that must be diagnostically analysed is therefore the leadership of the country.Leadership needs to be understood in a broader sense to include political leaders, leaders in public sector institutions, civil society, as well as private sector institutions at national and local
levels. In some post conflict situations, the leadership at local level includes leaders of the international organisations represented. For example in Kosovo and Timor-Leste the post conflict administration was led by the United Nations. In such cases the diagnostic analysis of the leadership emerging after conflict must include the international level.
The leadership that emerges after violent conflict is central in leading the country to design and implement a new governance and public administration system. Just like one would trust an architect to design a new house after fire has destroyed one’s home, people need to have some level of trust in a leadership that emerges after violent conflict to lead the country into designing a new government and governance system. Therefore, discussing the role of political leadership in reconstructing capacities for public services is pertinent. If one is involved in supporting a post-conflict country to reconstruct its public administration, there is also a need for leadership to be mobilized and fully engaged to this exercise.
However, trust in political leadership is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it is important that the people and indeed all stakeholders and key players in the reconstruction of a country after violent conflict trust the leadership that emerges. But on the other hand putting all the trust in only the political leadership, especially in one person (e.g. the Head of State as is often the case) is very risky specifically because it is impossible for one person or only the political leadership to have solutions to all the problems confronting a post conflict country. In addition, one needs to bear in mind that not every post conflict political leadership comes with the problem of lack of or inadequate trust from the people, stakeholders or key players. It always depends on the situation in context. There are post conflict situations where the leadership starts with a clean plate of trust whereby they are taken as liberators and have sufficient trust capital. But depending on the way they spend this trust capital (e.g. by quickly consolidating peace and security of person and property, re-establishing effective delivery of public services, respecting and protecting human rights, democracy and rule of law, accountability etc) they may gain more trust or lose all of it. [Read more]
III. How to Develop a Framework for the Diagnostic Analysis of the Situation?
3.1 Assessing Leadership Capacity